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Nephyr Backtest

clm-studios/nephyr-backtest

This server lets Claude backtest prediction market strategies against actual Polymarket on-chain data. You'd reach for this when you want to validate trading strategies or analyze how different betting approaches would have performed historically without risking real money. It pulls real transaction and market resolution data from Polygon, so you're testing against what actually happened rather than synthetic scenarios. Useful if you're building automated prediction market bots or just want to understand which market timing or position sizing strategies actually work before deploying capital.

tools
3
transport
STDIO
last updated
Apr 1, 2026
View on GitHub

Tools

3 tools

Public tool metadata for what this MCP can expose to an agent.

run_weather_backtestRun a weather signal backtest over a historical date range. Uses GFS ensemble forecasts vs Polymarket prices. Returns summary stats: win rate, P&L, Sharpe, monthly breakdown.7 params

Run a weather signal backtest over a historical date range. Uses GFS ensemble forecasts vs Polymarket prices. Returns summary stats: win rate, P&L, Sharpe, monthly breakdown.

Parameters* required
bankrollnumber
Starting bankroll in USDdefault: 1000
citiesarray
City names to include (e.g. NYC, Chicago). Leave empty for all defaults.
edge_threshold_pctnumber
Minimum edge % to take a tradedefault: 8
end_datestring
End date YYYY-MM-DD
max_bet_usdnumber
Maximum bet size in USDdefault: 10
platformstring
one of polymarket · kalshidefault: polymarket
start_datestring
Start date YYYY-MM-DD
run_copy_backtestRun a copy trading backtest by replaying historical on-chain trades from top Polymarket wallets. Strategies: baseline, top3, consensus, category-filtered.8 params

Run a copy trading backtest by replaying historical on-chain trades from top Polymarket wallets. Strategies: baseline, top3, consensus, category-filtered.

Parameters* required
bankrollnumber
Starting bankroll in USDdefault: 1000
end_datestring
End date YYYY-MM-DD
max_bet_usdnumber
Maximum bet size in USDdefault: 10
platformstring
one of polymarket · kalshidefault: polymarket
start_datestring
Start date YYYY-MM-DD
strategystring
one of baseline · top3 · consensus · category-filtereddefault: baseline
top_ninteger
Number of top wallets to copydefault: 20
walletsarray
Specific wallet addresses to copy. Leave empty to use leaderboard.
get_available_dataCheck what historical data is available for a city and date range. Returns counts of cached forecast, observed, and Polymarket price days.3 params

Check what historical data is available for a city and date range. Returns counts of cached forecast, observed, and Polymarket price days.

Parameters* required
citystring
City name (e.g. NYC, Chicago, London)
end_datestring
End date YYYY-MM-DD
start_datestring
Start date YYYY-MM-DD

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Readme

Details

Repository
github.com/clm-studios/nephyr-backtest
Category
Data & Analytics
Package
nephyr-backtest
Transport
STDIO
Registry
MCP registry, active

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