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Foresea Forecasting

pareelamre/analyzing-llm-rationale

Connects Claude to the Foresea forecasting API, which runs a 120B-parameter model trained on Metaculus-style questions. You get structured predictions with confidence scores, automatic evidence retrieval from GDELT and news sources, and market-vs-model edge analysis for Polymarket and Kalshi. The server exposes binary and multiple-choice forecasts, returns both the prediction and the ranked evidence articles that informed it, and calculates whether the model is bullish or bearish relative to current market prices. Useful when you need probabilistic forecasts grounded in recent news or want to scan prediction markets for potential mispricings. The underlying research studies how explicit reasoning instructions affect LLM forecast accuracy.

tools
28
transport
HTTP
last updated
Jun 6, 2026

Install

From registry metadata
$ npx add-mcp https://foresea.ink/mcp/ --name forecasting

Run in your terminal. add-mcp asks which agents to add it to (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and more). Add -g to install it for every project.

Review the command, arguments and environment values before installing. MCP servers run with your local permissions.

Other ways

Claude Code

$ claude mcp add --transport http forecasting https://foresea.ink/mcp/

Run in your terminal. Add --scope user to make it available in every project.

Tools

Verified live · 28 tools

Verified live against the running server on Nov 6, 2026.

foresea_forecastCall this whenever the user asks about probability, likelihood, or whether something will happen. Good triggers: "Will X happen?", "What are the chances of Y?", "How likely is Z?", "What's the probability that…", "Do you think X will…", "Should I bet on…". Returns a calibrated...13 params

Call this whenever the user asks about probability, likelihood, or whether something will happen. Good triggers: "Will X happen?", "What are the chances of Y?", "How likely is Z?", "What's the probability that…", "Do you think X will…", "Should I bet on…". Returns a calibrated...

Parameters* required
attach_evidenceboolean
default: true
categoriesvalue
descriptionstring
default:
evidence_top_kinteger
default: 5
market_outcomevalue
market_platformvalue
market_probabilityvalue
market_urlvalue
optionsvalue
question*string
question_typevalue
resolution_criteriastring
default:
variantstring
default: variant0_neutral_baseline
foresea_analyze_marketCall this when the user mentions a specific prediction market by URL, slug, or ticker — or asks whether a particular market is over/underpriced. Good triggers: "Is this Polymarket fair?", "What's the edge on kalshi:XXXXX?", "Should I buy/sell this market?", user pastes a Polym...13 params

Call this when the user mentions a specific prediction market by URL, slug, or ticker — or asks whether a particular market is over/underpriced. Good triggers: "Is this Polymarket fair?", "What's the edge on kalshi:XXXXX?", "Should I buy/sell this market?", user pastes a Polym...

Parameters* required
builtin_skillsboolean
default: false
evidence_top_kinteger
default: 5
ground_in_recordboolean
default: false
market_idvalue
market_probabilityvalue
max_tool_stepsinteger
default: 5
platformvalue
questionvalue
skillsvalue
slugvalue
tickervalue
tool_loopboolean
default: false
variantstring
default: variant0_neutral_baseline
foresea_scan_marketsCall this when the user wants to find mispriced or interesting markets, not evaluate a specific one. Good triggers: "What should I bet on?", "Find me trading opportunities", "Which markets are mispriced right now?", "What's Foresea's best edge today?", "Scan Polymarket for opp...5 params

Call this when the user wants to find mispriced or interesting markets, not evaluate a specific one. Good triggers: "What should I bet on?", "Find me trading opportunities", "Which markets are mispriced right now?", "What's Foresea's best edge today?", "Scan Polymarket for opp...

Parameters* required
evidence_top_kinteger
default: 3
limitinteger
default: 4
min_edgenumber
default: 0.1
platformstring
default: polymarket
queryvalue
foresea_batch_quotesCall this when the user wants current price/volume for several markets at once -- a watchlist, a portfolio, "check on these 5 markets" -- instead of calling foresea_analyze_market once per market. Each ref is "platform:ident", e.g. "kalshi:KXFED-25JUN-H" or "polymarket:some-ma...1 params

Call this when the user wants current price/volume for several markets at once -- a watchlist, a portfolio, "check on these 5 markets" -- instead of calling foresea_analyze_market once per market. Each ref is "platform:ident", e.g. "kalshi:KXFED-25JUN-H" or "polymarket:some-ma...

Parameters* required
refs*array
foresea_check_runCall this after foresea_analyze_market timed out or errored with a message naming a client_run_key -- the research it started may still be running server-side. Returns {"status": "running", ...} if it's not done yet (call again in a bit), or the full report once it is. Do not...1 params

Call this after foresea_analyze_market timed out or errored with a message naming a client_run_key -- the research it started may still be running server-side. Returns {"status": "running", ...} if it's not done yet (call again in a bit), or the full report once it is. Do not...

Parameters* required
client_run_key*string
foresea_track_recordCall this when the user asks how reliable or accurate Foresea is, or wants to know whether to trust a forecast. Good triggers: "How good is Foresea?", "What's the track record?", "Has it been right before?", "Is it calibrated?", "What's the Brier score?". Returns accuracy, Bri...1 params

Call this when the user asks how reliable or accurate Foresea is, or wants to know whether to trust a forecast. Good triggers: "How good is Foresea?", "What's the track record?", "Has it been right before?", "Is it calibrated?", "What's the Brier score?". Returns accuracy, Bri...

Parameters* required
fieldsvalue
foresea_edge_boardCall this when the user wants the current top trading opportunities with explicit trade directions and historical backing. Good triggers: "What are the best bets right now?", "Show me the edge board", "Which model is winning the paper-trading competition?", "What's the stronge...4 params

Call this when the user wants the current top trading opportunities with explicit trade directions and historical backing. Good triggers: "What are the best bets right now?", "Show me the edge board", "Which model is winning the paper-trading competition?", "What's the stronge...

Parameters* required
cursorinteger
default: 0
fieldsvalue
limitinteger
default: 20
min_edgenumber
default: 0
foresea_venue_dataRead public historical markets/candles/trades, batch books/midpoints/spreads, fees, holders, open interest, event volume, milestones and weather. Omit operation to discover operation names and schemas. No account or write access.4 params

Read public historical markets/candles/trades, batch books/midpoints/spreads, fees, holders, open interest, event volume, milestones and weather. Omit operation to discover operation names and schemas. No account or write access.

Parameters* required
bodyvalue
operationstring
default:
parametersvalue
platformstring
default:
foresea_exchange_statusCall this to check Kalshi exchange operational status (trading active flag) and operational hours/schedule.

Call this to check Kalshi exchange operational status (trading active flag) and operational hours/schedule.

No parameters. Call it with no arguments.

foresea_orderbookCall this to fetch the live bids and asks orderbook depth for a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. 'KXFED-25JUN-H') or Polymarket YES-token ID.2 params

Call this to fetch the live bids and asks orderbook depth for a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. 'KXFED-25JUN-H') or Polymarket YES-token ID.

Parameters* required
platformstring
default:
ticker_or_token*string
foresea_market_tagsCall this to sample Polymarket's category vocabulary. Each entry is a label and the slug that identifies it. This is one page of at most 100 tags, not the full taxonomy: Polymarket has tens of thousands, and the endpoint returns a fixed slice that is ordered neither alphabetic...

Call this to sample Polymarket's category vocabulary. Each entry is a label and the slug that identifies it. This is one page of at most 100 tags, not the full taxonomy: Polymarket has tens of thousands, and the endpoint returns a fixed slice that is ordered neither alphabetic...

No parameters. Call it with no arguments.

foresea_price_historyCall this to retrieve historical price series or OHLC candlesticks for a market (e.g. Kalshi ticker or Polymarket token/slug).2 params

Call this to retrieve historical price series or OHLC candlesticks for a market (e.g. Kalshi ticker or Polymarket token/slug).

Parameters* required
series_tickerstring
default:
ticker_or_market*string
foresea_live_dataCall this to fetch real-time sports game statistics, play-by-play data, and live event feeds from Kalshi. Provide event_ticker for event charts, or milestone_id with data_type="game_stats" for play-by-play.3 params

Call this to fetch real-time sports game statistics, play-by-play data, and live event feeds from Kalshi. Provide event_ticker for event charts, or milestone_id with data_type="game_stats" for play-by-play.

Parameters* required
data_typestring
default:
event_tickerstring
default:
milestone_idstring
default:
foresea_polymarket_metaCall this to fetch Polymarket metadata: event series listings, community discussion comments for a market, or sports league metadata (target: 'series', 'comments', 'sports', 'teams'). 'series' lists the series and how many events each holds, not the events themselves -- fetch...2 params

Call this to fetch Polymarket metadata: event series listings, community discussion comments for a market, or sports league metadata (target: 'series', 'comments', 'sports', 'teams'). 'series' lists the series and how many events each holds, not the events themselves -- fetch...

Parameters* required
market_idstring
default:
targetstring
default: series
foresea_recent_tradesCall this to fetch recent public executed trades / trade tape (prices, sizes, timestamps) on Kalshi or Polymarket.3 params

Call this to fetch recent public executed trades / trade tape (prices, sizes, timestamps) on Kalshi or Polymarket.

Parameters* required
limitinteger
default: 20
platformstring
default: kalshi
ticker_or_tokenstring
default:
foresea_market_leaderboardCall this to fetch the top profitable prediction market trader leaderboard and rankings from Polymarket.1 params

Call this to fetch the top profitable prediction market trader leaderboard and rankings from Polymarket.

Parameters* required
limitinteger
default: 20
foresea_debate_marketConduct an adversarial multi-agent debate (Bull vs. Bear vs. Chief Risk Judge) to cross-examine evidence and isolate blind spots on a forecasting question.4 params

Conduct an adversarial multi-agent debate (Bull vs. Bear vs. Chief Risk Judge) to cross-examine evidence and isolate blind spots on a forecasting question.

Parameters* required
market_probabilityvalue
platformstring
default: Market
question*string
resolution_criteriastring
default:
foresea_optimize_portfolioCalculate optimal mathematical Fractional Kelly capital allocations and position sizes across live Grade A/B prediction market opportunities.3 params

Calculate optimal mathematical Fractional Kelly capital allocations and position sizes across live Grade A/B prediction market opportunities.

Parameters* required
bankroll_usdnumber
default: 1000
kelly_fractionnumber
default: 0.25
min_edgenumber
default: 0.05
foresea_feed_latestFetch the real-time unified Foresea Alpha & Agent Feed, combining live prediction market edge signals, autonomous agent trades & theses, and leaderboard standings.2 params

Fetch the real-time unified Foresea Alpha & Agent Feed, combining live prediction market edge signals, autonomous agent trades & theses, and leaderboard standings.

Parameters* required
limitinteger
default: 10
min_edgenumber
default: 0.05
foresea_weather_radarScan live temperature and weather prediction markets (Kalshi KXHIGHNY, KXHIGHCHI, KXHIGHMIA, KXHIGHAUS, KXHIGHDEN, KXHIGHPHIL, etc.) against neural weather models (Google DeepMind WeatherNext 3 / MetNet) and high-resolution multi-model ensembles, calibrated with station microc...1 params

Scan live temperature and weather prediction markets (Kalshi KXHIGHNY, KXHIGHCHI, KXHIGHMIA, KXHIGHAUS, KXHIGHDEN, KXHIGHPHIL, etc.) against neural weather models (Google DeepMind WeatherNext 3 / MetNet) and high-resolution multi-model ensembles, calibrated with station microc...

Parameters* required
target_datevalue
foresea_weather_forecastRetrieve neural model weather forecasts (Google Maps Weather API / WeatherNext 3 / MetNet, ECMWF, GFS, GraphCast) with empirical station bias correction (e.g. KNYC Central Park, KMDW Chicago Midway, KDEN Denver) and strike bracket probability calculations for weather predictio...2 params

Retrieve neural model weather forecasts (Google Maps Weather API / WeatherNext 3 / MetNet, ECMWF, GFS, GraphCast) with empirical station bias correction (e.g. KNYC Central Park, KMDW Chicago Midway, KDEN Denver) and strike bracket probability calculations for weather predictio...

Parameters* required
station_or_query*string
target_datevalue
foresea_batch_forecastSubmit up to 25 forecasting questions concurrently and receive structured predictions with confidence probabilities, bull/bear factor decomposition, key catalysts, and evidence citations for each question.6 params

Submit up to 25 forecasting questions concurrently and receive structured predictions with confidence probabilities, bull/bear factor decomposition, key catalysts, and evidence citations for each question.

Parameters* required
attach_evidenceboolean
default: true
concurrency_limitinteger
default: 5
evidence_top_kinteger
default: 3
itemsvalue
questionsvalue
variantstring
default: variant0_neutral_baseline
foresea_crypto_edgeScan real-time Kalshi cryptocurrency prediction markets (KXBTCD threshold contracts) scored against Black-Scholes zero-drift diffusion models and spot volatility. Returns tradeable market mispricings, implied odds, calibration reliability, and realized paper equity curves.2 params

Scan real-time Kalshi cryptocurrency prediction markets (KXBTCD threshold contracts) scored against Black-Scholes zero-drift diffusion models and spot volatility. Returns tradeable market mispricings, implied odds, calibration reliability, and realized paper equity curves.

Parameters* required
limitinteger
default: 20
min_edgenumber
default: 0
foresea_webhook_subscribeSubscribe an external agent HTTP callback webhook to receive real-time dispatches for new forecasts and market edge opportunities. The response contains an HMAC secret (X-Foresea-Signature) for validating incoming payloads.3 params

Subscribe an external agent HTTP callback webhook to receive real-time dispatches for new forecasts and market edge opportunities. The response contains an HMAC secret (X-Foresea-Signature) for validating incoming payloads.

Parameters* required
eventsvalue
min_edgenumber
default: 0.05
url*string
foresea_trade_account_statusCheck real prediction-market trading readiness, max order notional limits, and venue configuration statuses for Kalshi and Polymarket.

Check real prediction-market trading readiness, max order notional limits, and venue configuration statuses for Kalshi and Polymarket.

No parameters. Call it with no arguments.

foresea_preview_orderValidate, normalize, and simulate guardrail checks for a real Kalshi or Polymarket order without submitting it to the exchange.11 params

Validate, normalize, and simulate guardrail checks for a real Kalshi or Polymarket order without submitting it to the exchange.

Parameters* required
action*string
order_typestring
default: limit
outcome*string
platform*string
post_onlyboolean
default: false
price*number
quantity*number
slugvalue
tickervalue
time_in_forcevalue
token_idvalue
foresea_place_orderSubmit a guarded real order to Kalshi or Polymarket. Live execution requires confirmation='PLACE REAL ORDER' and execute=True, and is protected by server notional ceilings and exchange guardrails.14 params

Submit a guarded real order to Kalshi or Polymarket. Live execution requires confirmation='PLACE REAL ORDER' and execute=True, and is protected by server notional ceilings and exchange guardrails.

Parameters* required
action*string
client_order_idvalue
confirmation*string
executeboolean
default: true
order_typestring
default: limit
outcome*string
platform*string
post_onlyboolean
default: false
price*number
quantity*number
slugvalue
tickervalue
time_in_forcevalue
token_idvalue
foresea_cancel_orderCancel an active open order on Kalshi or Polymarket using its venue order ID.3 params

Cancel an active open order on Kalshi or Polymarket using its venue order ID.

Parameters* required
order_id*string
platformstring
default: kalshi
tickervalue

Sponsors

Readme

Foresea: Autonomous Prediction Market Intelligence & LLM Rationale Benchmark

CI Docker Deploy Tests Python Live Platform MCP Endpoint


View the full README on GitHub

Details

Repository
github.com/pareelamre/analyzing-llm-rationale
Website
foresea.ink
Category
AI & LLM Tools
Transport
HTTP
Registry
MCP registry, active
Resources
8
Prompts
6
Tools verified
Nov 6, 2026

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