Polymarket Trading
This is reference documentation for a high-frequency Polymarket trading bot that operates on 15-minute crypto markets. You get terminology for the specific strategies it uses (exit plans at $0.99, scale-ins at 1.5x on winning positions, midpoint stop losses), plus the actual formulas for two confidence calculation methods the bot A/B tests: an additive voting system versus a Bayesian approach with log-odds. The fee structure section is genuinely useful since selling as a taker on Polymarket can hit 3.7% at certain price points. Most valuable if you're actually running this bot or building something similar and need to understand why it places orders the way it does. The code patterns are minimal but the strategy logic is well documented.
- skills.sh installs
- 144
- GitHub stars
- 17
- last updated
- Aug 21, 2026
Install
$ npx -y skills add niller2005/polyflup --skill polymarket-trading --agent claude-codeInstalls into .claude/skills of the current project.
Files
Terminology & Concepts
- Atomic Hedging: Simultaneous entry+hedge pair placement via batch API (primary risk management).
- Combined Price Threshold: Maximum allowed sum of entry + hedge prices (default $0.99) to guarantee profit.
- Emergency Liquidation: Time-aware progressive pricing to recover value from partial fills.
- Pre-Settlement Exit: Confidence-based early exit of losing side (T-180s to T-45s before resolution).
- MIN_ORDER_SIZE Smart Hold: Hold winning positions <5.0 shares, orphan losing ones.
- Underdog: Side trading below $0.50. Requires >40% confidence for entry.
- Tick Size: Minimum price increment allowed for a market (e.g., 0.01 or 0.001).
- POST_ONLY: Order type that only adds liquidity (earns maker rebates, fails if crossing).
- GTC (Good-Til-Cancel): Order type that fills immediately as taker (pays taker fees).
- Orphaned Position: Position <5.0 shares that cannot be sold due to exchange minimum.
Strategy Nuances
Atomic Hedging Execution (v0.6.0+)
Overview: The bot places entry+hedge pairs simultaneously to guarantee profit structure.
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- Repository
- github.com/niller2005/polyflup
- Categories
- Backend & APIs, Finance & Trading
- First seen
- Jun 3, 2026
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