Oransim Causal Marketing Twin

This is a causal simulation engine for marketing teams who want to model campaign outcomes before spending budget. You get a 64-node causal graph that lets you predict ROI across creative/KOL/platform combinations, run counterfactual swaps mid-campaign (swap a KOL on day 3, see the 14-day trajectory change), and audit exactly which nodes drove each prediction. The backend uses a Causal Neural Hawkes Process with TARNet counterfactual heads and LLM-backed consumer agent personas. It's open source, runs locally in mock mode without API keys, and includes Python SDK access if you want to skip the HTTP layer. Useful if you're tired of A/B testing in production and want to explore the decision tree beforehand.

skills.sh installs: 267
GitHub stars: 26
last updated: Jun 3, 2026

View on GitHub

Install

$ npx -y skills add aradotso/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin --agent claude-code

Installs into .claude/skills of the current project.

Files

Oransim — Causal Digital Twin for Marketing

Skill by ara.so — Daily 2026 Skills collection.

Oransim is an open-source causal simulation engine for marketing teams. It lets you predict campaign ROI, run counterfactual "what if" scenarios (swap KOLs, reallocate budget, change platforms), and audit every prediction through a transparent 64-node causal graph — before spending a dollar.

Core capabilities:

Pre-launch ROI ranking across creative × KOL × budget combinations
Mid-campaign do()-operator rollouts (e.g. swap KOL on day 3, see 14-day path diff)
Post-mortem counterfactuals (what if we'd spent on 小红书 instead of 抖音?)
LLM-backed "soul personas" for 1M+ virtual consumer agents
Causal Neural Hawkes Process for temporal cascade simulation
Per-arm counterfactual heads (TARNet / Dragonnet architecture)

Installation

git clone https://github.com/OranAi-Ltd/oransim.git
cd oransim
pip install -e '.[dev]'

Backend (mock mode — no API key needed)

LLM_MODE=mock python -m uvicorn oransim.api:app --port 8001

Backend (real LLM pipeline)

SKILL.md on GitHub

Details

Repository: github.com/aradotso/trending-skills
Category: Marketing & SEO
First seen: Jun 3, 2026