Thinking In Bets

pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management

Based on Annie Duke's framework, this helps you separate decision quality from outcomes, which matters when you're doing post-mortems or making calls with incomplete information. Instead of judging whether you were right, you evaluate whether your thinking process was sound at the time. Use it for pre-mortems, setting kill criteria, or just avoiding the trap of calling something a good decision because it happened to work out. The shift from "was I right?" to "was my process good?" is simple but cuts through a lot of hindsight bias and groupthink in team settings. Best for decisions where luck plays a role and you need to learn from results without getting distorted by them.

skills.sh installs: 428
GitHub stars: 58
last updated: Aug 21, 2026

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Install

$ npx -y skills add pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets --agent claude-code

Installs into .claude/skills of the current project.

Files

Domain Context

This skill implements a proven product management framework. The approach combines best practices from industry leaders and is designed for practical application in day-to-day PM work.

Input Requirements

Context about your product, feature, or problem
Relevant data, research, or constraints (recommended but optional)
Clear articulation of what you're trying to achieve

Thinking in Bets

What It Is

Thinking in Bets is a framework for improving decision quality by separating decisions from outcomes. The core insight: a good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome—luck is always involved.

Most people judge decisions by their outcomes (called "resulting"). This is backwards. You can only control the quality of your decision, not the outcome.

The key shifts: